we got down 200 points? it's absolutely the thing to watch. >> and don't miss the ten-year yield as well, which is also climbing at this hour, as you might expect. thanks so much for watching this special edition of "street signs." we hope you had fun because we did, too. "closing bell" is coming up next. don't miss it. hi, everybody, we're into the final stretch on a volatile day. welcome to the "closing bell." we're quicking losing altitude on this outcome. >> first of all, the rallies seem to be everybody is expecting ben bernanke to say something dovish about tapering this week, but about an hour ago, the financial times came out with an article saying he was more likely to talk more positively about tapering starting sooner rather than later, and the dow has fallen 125 points since that article

hit. we'll talk about that, coming up. >> that's pretty stunning, bill. it's an indication how fragile this market is. the financial times that anybody, the media does not know what bernanke is going to say right now. we're all speculating. it's not just the stock market focused on rates, the housing market also watching rates rise and not liking it one bit. the new hire drying up the refi market leading to layoffs at the banks. we want to stay tuned to that. also the ns arka leaker is speaking out again. he's speaking to the white house about just how intrusive the phone call monitoring is, and now they want to exclude people they ask for data from, even if people are being harmed. is that legal? we have light of developments to that and we'll cover it on today's program. >> this story is fascinating and

so is the markets today. look what happened when the article came out. we are looking at a gain of 60 points in the dow, a huge sellout in the last hour ahead of the bernanke two-day meeting which begins tomorrow. s&p and the nasdaq composite also losing some of their early momentum. you see exactly when it happened right at 2:00. markets swooned as a result. up on the nasdaq about 16 points, up on the s&p, but again, well off the highs at about five points. >> andreas garcia, brian bellsky from bemo capital markets and mark vischemy. thank you for being with us today. we don't know what ben bernanke is going to say on wednesday, but it is instructive to see how

the market responded, don't you think, just the talk that he made positive comments about tapering. >> for getting what happened today, but going forward, i think the market is going to be more volatile because at some point the training wheels are going to come off. that means the market doesn't know if they can ride that bike or not, but something to keep in mind ahead of wednesday is there is a huge difference in terms of tapering qe and raising interest rates. ben bernanke, i don't know what he's going to say, but one thing i'm pretty sure he's going to try to do is to clarify the message. there's a big difference in turning off the tab and draining the bad tab. all we're trying stod actuto do actually closing the tab. >> but you have to make a bet in terms of what the fed says and how you want to work around it. so jump in here. what is your bet in terms of what happens come wednesday? >> well, the bet is that mr. bernanke will do a good job communicating. any time you want to try to

focus on what the fed is going to say, history will tell you that fed and economic type analysis is always going to be late, and so our key would be this is a very important next couple of days. that's why we've seen vics' levels go occuup, that's why we think we'll see volatility continue, but this is not enough to derail the overall bull market which we think is very much in place. >> bob kaiser, the crux of the financial times article is that there are those inside the fed who feel that the last few jobs reports show that there is improvement underway in the jobs market. do you see that reflected in the markets anywhere? >> bill, the markets should be focused on the job markets. the fed has been talking about tapering, really, since the beginning of the year with the january fco meeting. but the market never paid attention until we got the april report which was better than

expected. so suddenly tapering became a reality. it's interesting, since then, if you look at three three-month payment growth, it's actually slowed down every month since october. so when the fed put all the focus on job creation, the average payroll creation now is just 150,000 a month. the economy is not accelerating, and the fed has said clearly since january, they will taper when they see a substantial improvement in the jobs market, and i don't think they've seen it yet, especially with an uptick in unemployment growth. >> yet you do see a rise this year. >> absolutely, the april employment report over the course of the month of may, unemployment yields went up 20 basis points, and it wasn't just isolated to treasury yields. it's very real and it will have an effect on the economy, especially if the trend continues. >> if you are seeing an anticipation of the rates moving higher, mark, jump in here, because already you're seeing insurance companies, utilities,

those companies that may benefit from higher rates actually get on the move here. so is that the train you want to get on, or do you want to stay with those dividend payers that have been working? >> i still think we prefer the dividend payers, because in this environment, the fed isn't going to adjust its underlying interest rate policy likely for a year, possibly two years or month. as a consequence, i still think dividend payers will continue to attract sponsorship. that said, i also think a more strict stance is warranted given the fact if the fed continues to taper, it ought to be because of employment growth and corporate profitability, ultimately. >> you're nodding your head. where are you putting your money to work right now? >> i agree that cyclical sectors, they look more appealing. they've become bond proxies

because you couldn't find that. in the ten-year yield, if you're buying valcom stocks, you're saying, you know what, i'm getting more value on the cyclical side. >> so what are you buying here? >> financials and industrials. financials a steeper yield curve tends to benefit financials over the next couple years, that's our view. and industrials, prices coming down. that's an input cost for industrials, especially u.s.-based industrials that might perform well over the next couple years. >> how about bond funds, people getting statements back, they're finding they're losing money in bond funds? is that the way to go? >> i think you need to be balanced, but the problem is even if you're in high dividend yielding stocks, you're going to get hurt there also. some of the most important equity sectors because of their proxy for bonds the last few months. it really depends on the pace of growth going forward. we don't see significant tapering before the year end, but it really depends on the economy going forward.

the fed needs to thread the needle. >> brian, are you buying the dips still at this point each time there is this talk that maybe the fed is going to taper sooner rather than later? >> we are from a longer term perspective, bill, because at the end of the day we're transitioning away from this need for monetary policy into fundamentals. the fundamentals in the united states stock market look really, really positive from a longer term basis. from that perspective, you have to be in stocks like energy, industrials and technology, we think, will be the leaders for the next several years. >> we'll leave it there. thank you, everybody. appreciate your time today. we'll see you soon. meanwhile, also some volatility to tell you about in the oil market. oil closing lower today but it spiked more. over to you, sharon. >> maria, we saw oil prices close here below $98 a barrel after having risen to $99 a barrel, the highest level in nine months' time earlier this this recession. of course, there was a lot of concern and continues to be about what will happen next in

syria and the fact we've seen escalating tensions there over the last several days is one reason why traders say we're looking at prices that did reach that highest point since last september. but until we know the next steps there, they say we're likely to continue to see oil prices perhaps back in a trading range, perhaps, though, at the higher end of the band that we've seen. another factor contributing to the fact that oil lost some of its gains was the strength that we saw relatively in the dollar. that definitely pushing down crude as well that had been above $106 a barrel to a lower level on the session. traders, though, as you've been mentioning, are really mostly focused on what's going to be happening in washington over the coming days and what the fmlc will decide to do and what they will talk about in terms of whether there will be a tapering or not will have a lot of influence over the direction of oil prices as well as many financial markets, of course. back to you. >> sharon, thank you very much. let's bring in scott from treon and alan from trading events. as we talk about this oil move,

are we at a point now, guys, where demand is strong enough to push us above $100 on wti? scott? >> no, i don't think so. i think this is a supply issue, and the interruption in supply has shot us up there. if you go back four years, we've been between 80 and 110 bucks a barrel, and in the last nine months, we've been between 90 and 110 bucks a barrel, and i think that's fair. now that the supply of geopolitical forces are gone, i think energy may be independent at the end of the decade, 2020, i think all of this will be low news and we'll go back to the $80 a barrel level. >> you think prices are going lower because there is so much supply out there, and we'll continue to be low in supply with all these opportunities. alan, do you agree with that? >> not at all. i have a couple words: price shock potential. there is always an issue that can drive crude higher. we push through the highs for

january, march and may, so the price action is telling us a completely different story. a $700 move from the lows could mean a target here of 103, 104, so we've got some upside potential here, and i look at it as a macroeconomic story, and things are getting better. it is a positive sign that the economy is getting better and we can afford to pay those prices. >> a disagreement on oil. go get 'em, scott. >> how are higher taxes a good thing? basically oil is going to be a tax that the consumer has to pay every single day they go to the pump, number one. number two, higher oil prices. show me a company that can handle higher oil rises right now. >> it's not a linear reaction. we can afford -- >> one at a time. one at a time. alan, go ahead. >> yeah, we can afford higher oil prices. we're not at 110, we're certainly not at 140 or 150, so i look at it as a positive. it's not an immediate drain. it's the sign of the ability to pay.

if you look at it technically speaking, the stock market, if we can get back to the 1640 lefr level, that's a 16-point bounce on this range here and we're at 175. these stocks are highly correlated. the s&p move hand and hand, and i've seen a higher move in the s&p. that's going to transfer into a lot of other asset classes. >> i'd like to see the world through those glasses. 48 million people on food stamps say they can't afford this gas. number two is we're barely growing at 2%. we can barely get a gdp at 2% with all the money we're pumping into the system now. so how do you think higher oil prices is going to be good for the economy on a daily basis? >> i'm not smart enough to pick a top in the market, and i don't think you are, either. the trends are going to continue. the feds have played the market like a song, and i think they know exactly what they're doing here. you may not agree how they're doing it, but it's gotten the results we're looking for and the market has gone up. those who are short have had to

take some quick profits because every time it goes lower, it comes back. >> very quick, alan, how high do you think oil can go? >> i'm thinking crude can get to 105 relatively easily. we've been trading at 80 to 110 the last couple years. we were at 110 just in april of 2012. so i'm not talking about catastrophically high prices. another 5% in the near term. >> got it. so you guys are far apart here. good stuff. thanks for joining us. the dow winds up 125 points. now we're up 63 points. >> clearly worrying continues about what the fed will say on wednesday. rick santelli will weigh in on what he'd like to hear, next. also, later, more companies are under pressure from activist investors. we talk about it every day. pork producers smithville foods are just the latest. are the stocks in your portfolio

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so, welcome back. we had this huge early rally because of the fed. the dow was up 191 points. then we lost most of those gains. also because of the fed. >> it's getting sillier and sillier. now not only are we parsing commas from the federal reserve, we're parsing from the germans as well. we're parsing the comments of the journalists as well. the journalists said the fed would likely push back on the likelihood of a rate increase. they're now coming back with the message a little off from what was said, but you see the dow up as much as 160 points where it is now. i would note that before this all happened in the middle of the day, the transports were notably weak, and i mentioned

that a couple of times. they were actually down in the middle of the day, so we had not just airlines w, but landstar, e union pacific. bonds moved to the down side as soon as this came out. the agg is what everybody watches at this point. that means yields moving to the upside. >> what exactly do the markets want to hear from the fed this week? let's bring in our guys on that, rick santelli and steve leesman. they say they're going to cut back on the taper talk, but now we're hearing they may step it up. >> i'm hearing keith richards and mick jagger saying fed communications is in tatters. that's what i'm hearing. i don't know exactly if they're intending to send the signal if

journalists are freelancing. i continue to believe there will not be a taper this month. i think the likeliest, earliest time is september. the market has been very volatile since the may 22nd communications from the fed chairman, and i think the reason is because the market is no longer certain or has less certainty about the reaction function of the fed, how it's processing incoming data and how that may or may not relate to tapering. so i think bernanke has a lot of work to do to reset communications with the market. >> and that's wednesday. >> rick, this is not just about articles published by the wall street journal or the financial times, this is about the market's response to those articles. what did you make of that selloff this last hour? what is that about? >> i tell you, it's really depressing, and i think this week's barons discusses how about greenspan, mr. volcker have criticized mr. bernanke. not that his heart isn't in the right place, but he's written

these aggressor analyses and mit articles farther than he should have written them. pretty soon, as steve said, jay leno's jokes are going to move the market about a taper. i just think at some point this is doing more harm than good. i personally don't think it's a communication problem. i think these programs have run their course and exit in a very calculating -- the way he said it, different variations of qe. it will end at the end of the year. let's be done, black and white clear about it. >> a lot is riding on this meeting, bob. he's got to say something on wednesday. >> i think things will stabilize once the fed makes it clear there is unlikely there will be any dramatic end to tapering. it will be very, very slow. most people have mid-2014. there are numbers all over the place. >> you don't go from 2% to 10% overnight. >> who knows, it could even go

up between that, and of course everybody seems to understand that intuitively or not intellectually, or maybe it's the other way around. everybody understands this, but the feds have to come out and say that. >> steve, are we still in a spot that whatever the fed chairman believes is gospel? or is there too much dif fusifu right now in this fed, do you think? >> i don't want to get a lot of e-mail from serious, religious people, so i don't use the word gospel ever, bill. >> goss bepel is simply a word meaning -- >> i get it. whatever the fed chairman thinks is important and critical, but this particular chairman has tried to run his committee a little more democratically and tried to not get out front. that's why the hardening article in the ft is a little curious to me. a, that the chairman would want such an article placed, but b,

i'm not sure he's there yet. these meetings are actual decisions that are made. the kind of articles we've seen the past couple weeks have been much more the sort of articles we've seen in the greenspan era where a greenspan decision ahead of the meeting could really force out what's going to happen in the meeting. i think it's a little uncertain. >> but in the old days they were written by people who were integral in how the markets worked, involved in markets. most of these blogs and the people writing them can barely spell market. >> and do we necessarily have to have the ft with a direct line into bernanke's thinking? why can't they do what a lot of journalists do, which is summarize what they see and write articles about it? >> you think they just misunderstood and they heard from fed officials? >> no,i don't. these are good journalists who i worked with for years, decades, almost, at this point, and i think they're writing what they're hearing -- >> they're misunderstanding what they're hearing. >> or is the message that they're getting confused, and they're getting different

messages on a different day, and that's the way this market is working. i have pounded my fist on one thing and one thing only for a long time. when the feds show substantial improvement, it needs to explain to the market substantial compared to what and improvement compared to when. >> what about gdp in 2013 and 2014? are they going to change the forecast? >> it may come down a little bit, but i don't think substantially, bob. i think we should still do 2-6-2 in the front half, 3 in the back half. i don't think it will be a crazy number. there's 7.4. it may tick up a little bit. >> the way the feds are thinking, are they going to want to dramatically drop off on tapering when they might be lowering their 2014 gdp process? >> the answer to that is a little more complicated because the debate inside the fed is how much it takes in the way of payroll growth in order to lower the employment rate. that number has come down

substantially. 200,000 could be a good number for really lowering the unemployment rate depending on what happens to the participation rate. >> that's the problem, steve. thael that's the problem. that's what mr. volcker and mr. greenspan are saying. we're reading too much into some of these models. human behavior does not model and that form of economics is in its infancy. >> certainly art more than science sometimes, i agree. >> about 35 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. we are well off for the highs of the day. this market just up 51 points before that meeting tomorrow. have you heard, "shrek" and "madagasc "madagascar" are heading to netflix. we're looking at netflix and dreamworks stocks when we come back. the housing market has been

on fire, except one area feeling the brunt of slightly higher interest rates, and one fear that it could lead to layoffs at banks. stay with us.

. welcome back. a dramatic reversal for stocks today. the dow was up 129 points until 2:00 eastern time when an article from the financial times

was published on line saying maybe the fed this week was going to talk more about tapering than the market was comfortable with. the dow has lost about 125 points since that time. the author of that article, robert harding from the financial times, by the way, will be a guest coming up on "fast money" beginning at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll hear more from exactly what he's hearing. >> they strike a new deal for original content today. more than 300 hours of original shows based on dreamworks' animation characters coming to your netflix account beginning next year. despite the story, both stocks rallying on the news. s&p still has the ratings on its hold on netflix. we're focusing on the two right now. on the technical side of the story, and on the fundamentals. gentlemen, good to see you. carter, kick us off here.

how does the chart of netflix look to you? >> let's look at the five-year chart, and that's what i have here. obviously this is a case of great euphoria, great despair. the last five years, the stock went into entering a bear phase and a bull phase for the last six months. here we are at 230, and it's a symmetry of the latest advance over the last six months compared to the si mymmetrical decline. we'll stay with this very bullish stock. >> do you agree the stock is going higher? >> i'm more mixed. i'm not necessarily bearish on it, but it's a very hard stock to judge fundamentally. there are two positives and two negatives i see in netflix. the first positive is it is almost 40 million subscribers and video streaming is likely

one of the future areas of television. and television almost commands 50% of the advertising market, the marketing dollars across the world. the second positive is that it's very leveraged to sub descriscr growth. that's one of the main reasons the stock has gone higher. i think the biggest negative in the market is youtube. youtube is actually the largest video streaming property in the world by multiples compared to anyone else. i think if they get involved in the advertising space on line, it's a potential negative. and the second negative is leverage again. i think you can see the stock decline 50% just like it did 15 years ago. >> let's look at dreamworks. how does their stock look to you? >> netflix has been strong for quite some time and is getting

stronger. this one is a loser but has all the hall marks of what you would call a bearish to bullish reversa reversal. a stock that was quite bearish but starting to bottom out. so asymmetry meaning downside risk, fairly limited from what we can see, and potential. >> i don't like dreamworks. if you want to be in the content space which has been a good area to be involved in, they're able to source their contents with various platforms. i prefer viacom. i think it's much better value 17 times. similar growth profile to dreamworks and i like their property content better. >> we will leave it there. gentlemen, thank you very much. great analysis on both companies. we appreciate it. >> just watching the markets, they're slowly drifting higher again of the t again. the dow is now up almost 90 points. when we prepared today's program, we were going to talk about how we've had four consecutive trading sessions where the dow was either up or

down and today would have been the fifth. now we threw it out the window with the times article and now it's coming back. who knows. we still may do this. >> we did see an overwhelming bias to the buy side. that has been lowered, but you still see buys to the buy side as we approach the close, even though it's lower than an hour ago. up next, an actiinvestor pug to push pork producer smithville from the market. how governments and investors could trigger a new financial crisis. something you need to hear when we come back. stay tuned. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ trader ] when i'm trading, i'm so into it, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 hours can go by before i realize tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that i haven't even looked away from my screen. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪

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if you ever thought the social media market wasn't important. >> crazy day. >> the news on the fed totally triggered the selling. >> now he's on twitter. >> he's tweeting. >> we were just talking about

what exactly he was writing about. he was saying in his view that the fed was more likely to talk more about tapering sooner rather than later as opposed to john hilsenwrath who was saying it's less likely they were talking about tapering sooner. >> so first we had a rally. robert harding comes out with this report in the financial times, this article. >> fell 150 points. now robert hard ing is on twittr saying, glad people are reading my fed preview. i've been in the september taper camp for a while and i would stick with that. >> but then he tweets out, but people need to chill out. they don't leak anything to gentlemen who steer markets, especially a blackout. the tweets come out and the market starts coming back. can you put these two things together? i feel like it is related. >> i think they are related. but, fwagain, as we said earlie it's not just about the reports coming out, it's about the market's response to these reports. this is a very nervous market.

now, it's probably a little thinly traded as well. volume is not all that heavy. but this market is very sensitive to fed policy right now, and we're watching that. and now we have this possibility of a fifth consecutive 100-point move for the dow, three down and two up, but this could be -- this could put us in the black for the last week or so. a crazy market. >> all right. >> markets off the highs but still kicking off the week with some decent gains we have here. courtney ragan looking at today's moves and they're getting bigger by the moment, aren't they? >> that is true. hanging on to positive territory. you just went through the reasons why thanks to also some better than expected economic data points. but it really hasn't been the case for all stocks all day. ak steel actually forecasting a bigger quarterly loss than analysts were estimating due to a loss in their carbon products and a loss after an outage.

that caused the stocks to fall. while it is under 500 million, it is rivaling larger companies like u.s. steel. they are considering a breakup rather than go through with that $470 billion takeover by the meat company, smithfield international, who reported that. thanks. >> smithfield foods claim to know better, these investors do, they know better for the company and the ceos of the board. but is that really the case in many cases? >> ken squire, founder of the 13d activist fund, said they

hold boardrooms responsible. but they often said they just hurt the average shareholder. good to see you both. thank you for joining us. so ken, make the case. what benefits do shareholders bring to the companies? >> when a 13d is filed, everybody makes all the pomp. >> it's over 5% or more? >> the stock pumps on average 2.56% in a day. the average holding period, however, is 15 months for these guys, and during that period they outperform the s&p by 16%. this is a benefit they're not only getting but the shareholders get the exact same benefit that they do. >> what's wrong with that, sanjay? >> there's nothing wrong with it, except for larger investors have larger goals than the average investor. the average investor may be looking for appreciation in his folder so he can go out and buy a new car.

in the case of smithfield foods, for example, the breakup of the company is far from a guaranteed result. so they may have a risk from turning down the chinese for this company and what the stock does. >> after those 15 months, then what? i don't know how far your survey goes or your study of all of this, but most ceos at least claim that they're focused on the long term for their companies beyond, presumably, a 15-month period, whereas the activist shareholder wants action now. >> that 15-month period is the 13d holding period. so the holding period before they file, they get 5%, and after they go below 5%, there's many years for that. in 2007, value got a stock seat. they've done more than 60 acquisitions, and these are long-term investors that really could have left in a year with i huge return, but they stuck

around because they are long term investors. >> they're long-term investors but they create a lot of noise over the short term. and i think that's what managements will fight back and say, look, we have a long-term strategy. we don't necessarily need to see these short-term moves. >> that's true, but keep in mind there are about 5,000 public companies, and last year, there were activist 13-ds upwards of $30 million. there are companies that need the noise and need the change, and it's not like they're targeting a large amount of companies. >> there are going to be companies and boards that become complacent. they take their eye off the ball and that's a perfect opportunity for an activist shareholder to step in. right? >> absolutely. we have corporate governments, things are out of whack. the thing is, the shareholder that actually hurts the shares in the company would be

blockbuster. the case with blockbuster, they were on the road to recovery with its on-line strategy, and had they done it, they would have outstripped netflix. but they didn't because a krric wanted to move back to the brick and mortar way. >> that's a good point except for the fact that 13-d was filed in 2004. the fact there is not an example of that in the last nine years i think somewhat proves the point that the activist now is different than the activist back then. your institutional shareholders are supporting them more. pension funds are putting more money in and they're getting more respect because they are more long term, they're not the short-term buys they used to be. and one more point, he had his 16-year period in blockbuster, so that really wasn't a short-term period for him. >> we'll be doing this again,

i'm sure, in the long term. thank you both. we are picking up some momentum here. just about 15 minutes before the closing bell sounds. we have a market up 15 points on the dow. we heard home rates are hitting a 17-year high. and did it already kill refinancing? that's coming up next. and it's one of the great mysteries of our time. the latest search of the body of jimmy hoffa is underway again in michigan at this hour. i'll have a live report on the "closing bell." stay with us. i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ]

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well, i tweeted a little bit ago that today is officially the national b harding day. >> a 200-point rally for the dow industrial average basically saying we will, in fact, hear commentary from the federal reserve that they will begin the taper. the market sells off to just about 50 points. >> we're all talking about it and jawboning about it, and then robin himself comes out and says, wait a minute, read the whole article. he's in the camp that tapering boo begin at the earliest in

september. we'll hear from him directly. he's coming up on "fast money." can't wait to see this. 5:00 eastern time. >> 120 points on the dow industrial average right now. technology all in the lead here as we head north on the dow. lows on the dow after some foolish housing news was released. >> they haven't been real favorites lately but stocks are up on the news that home builders confidence finally broke through territory. they jumped 8 points in may to hit 52. 52 is the line between positive and negative sentiment and that is the first positive reading since may of 2006. the stocks reacted immediately and continued to hold onto their gain. some of the big names like lenore and pulte and d.r.

horton. sentiment put them up for the day but will it last? the index saw gains, current sales positions up eight points sales expectations, over the next six months up nine points and buyer traffic up seven points. that last one still the only one in negative territory. there was no mention in today's nhb report, however, about rising mortgage rates. we've got to talk about that, and of course tomorrow we get housing starts. for more on line, n brcnbc.com. bill? >> that will also have a result on refis. what do you think? >> they target first-time homebuyers so rising rates are not good. also the homebuilders have been raising prices lately, so again, you don't want to see rising mortgage rates. as for the refi customers, we tend to think, oh, everybody refied already, but that's really not the case. there are a lot of folks out there right around the 5% mark,

and if rates continue to rise, they're not going to be able to refinance. also if there is new legislation or changes that would allow underwater borrowers to refinance, there is a lot of talk about that going on on capitol hill. if rates continue to rise, that is pricing a lot of folks out of the refinancing market, and remember, refinancings have helped a lot of struggling buyers stay in their home and it's also add to do consumer spending, especially in home renovations and other things around the house and community. so again, rising rates are a big question in the recovery going forward. >> that's funny. >> sounds familiar. >> yeah, exactly. heading to the close, about 20 minutes left in the trading session. we may get our fifth consecutive 100-point move for the dow, in this case, a rise of 125 points. >> peter schiff says stocks are on the rise. we'll hear from him.

also the man in the controversial data program is asking congress to grant immunity to companies who help fight cyberattacks. some are up in arms about that request because it means if someone is targeted by mistake, they may have no recourse. this story just keeps on giving, doesn't it? we'll have more later coming up on "closing bell." we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪

welcome back. what drama in the markets today. we were up 200 points, stocks making a major reversal twice this afternoon. first a big leg down after that financial times article suggested that the federal reserve will, in fact, start talking about tapering at this week's meeting. and then a move upward. now we just got the news that there is half a billion for sale at the close. and it could be a big trade in bank of america at the close, a big print in boc at the close as well. >> so it's the sixth consecutive upward move for the dow. we have almost five minutes left in the trading session. we got bob kaiser from s&p capital iq. what do you make of market response so sensitive to even the hint of tapering or no tapering in this market? >> to me it tells you that we're

kind of between dominant story lines. we were basically doing a yield chase. we were confident the fed would do what it's been doing for months now. we were confident the economic battle was improving. now i think we have doubts about tapering before we're fully confident that the economic numbers are in liftoff phase. to me it's an adjustment period. we started today at the exact midpoint of our post may 1st level on the s&p 500. to me it just tells you you're kind of fibrillating on this move. >> do you want to get in on this group now? >> to taper or not to taper. >> the market is in a volatile situation right now. it's been going up and down like a yo-yo. the fed is going to have to choreograph tapering, because they have to make sure if rates do start rising they don't go too far because you don't want to shut the economy down. the economy is kind of stuck on credit right now. >> rates are already rising.

stock traders are saying look at the bond market. they're responding to this as well right now. >> that's the indigestion, i think. you couldn't just say, rates are here, they're going to base stock market value certainties off this that rates are going up. i don't think it's really the likelihood, but i do think you have at least enough doubt with stocks having done what they've done year to date, you don't have a lot of room for error there. >> bob, what do you think the feds will say on wednesday? you have to have anticipation if you're putting money in this market. >> i think the fed is going to stay with the message they've been saying since the start of the year, which is we will taper when we've seen a financial improvement in the labor market. and then they'll leave up to the labor market to determine what is substantial. >> i think they also don't want people to interpret tapering as no more help. that's been the nuance. >> tapering means lower numbers. not necessarily 85 billion but lower than that. >> but there is an assumption. >> tapering is the beginning of

the tightening process, and the market is going to look way down the road. >> and anticipate it. guys, thank you very much. >> thank you very much. we'll come down to the closing koupt countdown and see if we can finish at 100 points on the bell. >> bremmer is saying the financial crisis could start another meltdown. he'll tell us about it, coming up. ♪ the 2013 lexus gs, with a dynamically tuned suspension and adjustable drive modes. because the ultimate expression of power is control. this is the pursuit of perfection. since aflac is helping with his expenses while he can't work, he can focus on his recovery. he doesn't have to worry so much about his mortgage, groceries, or even gas bills. kick! kick...

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welcome back. coming down to the last minute of trade here. again, we've had four consecutive moves doubt 100 points up or down the lost four days. will we do it for a fifth day? we're close, we're at 1005. the financial times article comes out at 2:00 saying there may be more taper talk than the market is comfortable with during meetings this week and then we sold off. and then we hear him say, that's not what i was trying to say in the article. what do we make of all this? >> i think it's kind of funny. the volatility is great. we would love to see some more volume, but if you think the fed is not involved in this market rally, you're crazy. this is proof of the pudding every single day. >> are we getting mixed signals from the fed, do you think? is this on purpose? >> no, i don't think.

i don't think they can really do that to this market. i think they're good at forecast ~iin forecasting it. until then i wouldn't make a trade. >> we're at about 108 points right now. stay tuned. much more to come on the "closing bell." >> it's 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is it? hello, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." we're on wall street watching a volatile move today. they were at a 108-point high on the news that the fed was close to tapering down. that's coming up on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. eastern. stick around to hear his take on what the feds do. we're still looking at a triple